Jerusalem, 16 Feb

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is kicking of a Mideast tour in Israel on Sunday, as Arab leaders reel from President Donald Trump's proposal to transfer the Palestinian population of the Gaza Strip to other countries and redevelop it under US ownership.

On Rubio's first visit to the region as America's top diplomat he is likely to get a warm welcome from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has praised the plan, and pushback from Arab leaders, who have universally rejected it and are scrambling to come up with a counterproposal.

The fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas meanwhile remains intact after a major dispute threatened to unravel it last week. But the sides face a fast-approaching deadline in early March to negotiate the next phase, and the war may resume if they don't reach an agreement.

Netanyahu has signalled readiness to resume the war after the current stage, even if that would leave dozens of hostages in captivity. At the same time, he has offered Hamas a chance to surrender and send its top leaders into exile. Hamas has rejected such a scenario.

Israel's Defence Ministry meanwhile said Sunday it received a shipment of 2,000-pound (900-kilogram) MK-84 munitions from the United States. The Biden administration had paused a shipment of such bombs last year over concerns about civilian casualties in Gaza.

'If someone has a better plan... that's great'

In a radio interview last week, Rubio indicated that Trump's proposal was in part aimed at pressuring Arab states to come up with their own postwar plan that would be acceptable to Israel, which says Hamas can have no role in Gaza.

He also appeared to suggest that Arab countries send in troops to combat Hamas, which survived Israel's devastating 15-month onslaught and remains in firm control of the territory.

“If someone has a better plan, and we hope they do, if the Arab countries have a better plan, then that's great,” Rubio said Thursday on the “Clay and Buck Show.”

But “Hamas has guns,” he added. “Someone has to confront those guys. It's not going to be American soldiers. And if the countries in the region can't figure that piece out, then Israel is going to have to do it and then we're back to where we've been.”

It was not clear if Rubio would meet with any Palestinians.

Arabs have limited options as Israel has rejected past plans

For Arab leaders, facilitating the mass expulsion of Palestinians or battling Palestinian militants on behalf of Israel are both nightmare scenarios. Either would open them up to fierce domestic criticism and potentially destabilise an already volatile region.

Egypt says it will host an Arab summit on February 27 and is working with other countries on a counterproposal that would allow for Gaza to be rebuilt without removing its population, which human rights groups say would likely violate international law.

Egypt has warned that any mass influx of Palestinians from Gaza would undermine its nearly half-century-old peace treaty with Israel, a cornerstone of American influence in the region.

Arab and Muslim countries have until now conditioned any support for postwar Gaza on a return to Palestinian governance with a pathway to statehood in Gaza, the West Bank and east Jerusalem, territories Israel seized in the 1967 Mideast war.

The Biden administration spent months rallying regional powers behind such plans, but they fizzled as Israel ruled out not only a Palestinian state but also any role in Gaza for the Western-backed Palestinian Authority, whose forces were driven out when Hamas seized power there in 2007.

Last year, Egypt proposed that a committee of independent technocrats under the auspices of the Palestinian Authority take charge of governing and rebuilding Gaza. Hamas accepted the proposal but its secular rival, Fatah, which dominates the authority, refused to embrace it and the plan went nowhere.

Rubio to visit regional heavyweights

Rubio will meet with Netanyahu on Sunday before travelling onward to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, regional heavyweights that have rejected any mass displacement of Palestinians and would be key to any regional response.

The United Arab Emirates was the driving force behind the 2020 Abraham Accords in which four Arab states normalized relations with Israel during Trump's previous term. Trump hopes to expand the accords to include Saudi Arabia, potentially offering closer US defence ties, but the kingdom has said it will not normalise relations with Israel without a pathway to a Palestinian state.

Rubio will not be visiting Egypt or Jordan, close US allies at peace with Israel that have refused to accept any influx of Palestinian refugees. Trump has at times suggested he might slash US aid to the two countries, which could be devastating for their economies, if they don't comply.

He is also skipping Qatar, which along with Egypt had served as a key mediator with Hamas in brokering the ceasefire.

Trump took credit for the ceasefire, which was reached in the closing days of the Biden administration after his Mideast envoy, Steve Witkoff, joined the talks. But more recently, Trump has suggested that Israel resume the war if the remaining dozens of hostages abducted in Hamas' 7 October, 2023, attack, which triggered the fighting, are not released sooner than planned.